How the Kentucky Derby Measures Up with Shock Winners

In May last year, we witnessed a thrilling finish to the 150^th Kentucky Derby; Mystik Dan, an 18/1 shot, just edged out two well-fancied horses, Sierra Leone and Forever Young. It was one of the best conclusions to a race known for its drama. Mystik Dan’s victory was considered a mild shock, but it really wasn’t in betting terms. The Kentucky Derby, like many of the world’s great horse races, has been serving up longshot winners throughout its history, but the trend also seems to be on the rise in recent years.

When looking at the 2025 Kentucky Derby horse racing betting lines, your eye will be drawn to the favorite, Journalism. But in truth, this is a race that has obliterated any sense of favorite status over the last seven years. Last year’s post-time favorite, Fierceness, finished 15^th. In fact, the last time a favorite won the Kentucky Derby was in 2018, when Justify completed the first leg of his Triple Crown triumph.

To be fair, there have been several instances when favorites have come close, including Age of Empire’s 3^rd place finish in 2023. We can also look at 2022 when Epicenter finished second. Yet, the fact that Epicenter finished behind the 80/1 shot and late entrant Rich Strike tells you a lot about how things have gone in the Kentucky Derby over recent years. There is value up and down on the race card, so it’s just a matter of finding which of the 20 runners will deliver.

Melbourne Cup can provide long shot winners

As mentioned, the Kentucky Derby does not hold a monopoly on longshot winners in recent years. Over in Australia, the Melbourne Cup is arguably the global race with the most cultural comparison to the Kentucky Derby in the sense of being a major national event. In 2024, the winner of the Melbourne Cup, Knight’s Choice, came in at 90/1. It was a remarkable win, particularly as Knight’s Choice had absolutely no form to talk about in the lead-up to the race.

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The Melbourne Cup has had a similar trend to the Kentucky Derby in that favorites have largely disappointed in recent years. In fact, you’ll have to go back to the mid-2000s and the heyday of the legendary Makybe Diva to find a sustained period of short-priced favorites winning the race. These trends could change, of course, but it underlines the fact you don’t always need to be looking at the top of the race card to find a winner.

The Grand National is always good for betting value

In the UK, the Grand National is arguably the world’s most open horse race for big-priced winners. 100/1 winners are not uncommon. The latest winner (the 2025 Grand National was held in early April) was Nick Rockett, who came in at 33/1. In 2022, we had a 50/1 winner, Nobel Yeats. Auroras Encore (66/1) and Mon Mome (100/1) were also notable big price winners in the modern era.

So what are the conditions in these races that leave the door open for long shots? We’d argue it’s a combination of things. For a start, the field is usually much bigger than most horses are used to. Typically, the horses running in the Kentucky Derby will be accustomed to lining up beside half a dozen horses, whereas the Derby has 20. The Melbourne Cup can have up to 24, and the Grand National is 34 (it used to be 40). The large number of runners correlates with the haphazardness of the outcome. There are other factors, too, including how the horses settle down in front of crowds of tens of thousands of spectators.

In saying all of this, it’s worth remembering that the cream can often rise to the top. These races have forged the reputations of legendary names in the past, horses who make a mockery of any doubts raised of their caliber as they race past the finishing post. Maybe we’ll see that again in the 2025 Kentucky Derby.